Grim thoughts

Some Grim, very grim thoughts on the realpolitik scenario that is playing out over Gaza and beyond.

For all the joy and relief at the release of Israel hostages /captives and the return of bodies, I’m angry that this should have happened nearly two years ago. All the evidence shows that a deal was possible. But Netanyahu chose the war path and we see this result. This prisoner release is not of his making. It’s now clear that it has come up against Trump’s transactional view of the world/ desire to be number one and his family and US regional interests. It also aligns in various ways with other countries’ strategic interests though the fit is not perfect. Its ugly

And so sadly. little attention is being loss to the weak, emaciated state of many Palestinians being released. Many have been beaten up Based on past history, many will have been swept up and framed in military ‘justice’. Palestinian society is divided and fragmented , and of course Gaza is a bloody graveyard with a traumatized population

Further, I’m concerned that the Israeli public may retreat into its bubble & victimhood and forget about Gaza and the West Bank. The domestic protest movement may well lose steam. No one in government or military may be held accountable domestically, much less in international fora and courts? Israel - business as usual. Even if Netanyahu is ousted, I don’t know if he will ever be held accountable though he won’t be welcome in most countries or be arrested for war crimes . That being said, Australia should increase pressure on Israel with more sanctions.

And of course, Palestinians (which Palestinian representatives?) thus far have no voice or power in deciding their future. I only hope that forthcoming detail indicates how/what is intended and that there is some way that Israel can be prevented from undermining future Palestinian interests. That is where I think the other Muslim and Arab countries may be putting their efforts through bodies on the ground and huge money.

This leads to a brutal reality check. River to the sea dreams are probably over. The most that can be hoped for at this time are two contiguous entities thst are not at war with each other and little by little there is more positive contact with the other

I hope that Israel is forced to give up the West Bank. That would have an enormous deflatory effect on Israeli ideological arrogance, but the resistance could cause an internal revolt and further fracture in the diaspora. Perhaps there will be similar moves for the Golan. US and regional interests will have no time for settler lunatics either.

Don’t expect Israel as a state to engage in restorative justice or a collective admission of guilt for either Gaza or so much else since 48. However, my hope is that there will be enough people in civil society who can lead a reconciliation process with Palestinians similar to that in South Africa. But for the majority, the wounds and hatreds may last for generations. And problems will flare up

As in Northern Ireland, or S Africa, the descendants of colonists by and large won’t be going anywhere. That is a festering sore for Palestinian aspirations that will flare up unless people are satisfied with other political solutions. I hope that Marwan Barghouti and become free to lead and work with sympathetic nations. A strong pragmatic political voice is critical. It is not a zero sum game

All this is also going to challenge protest movements abroad. It’s not a rosy nor radical moment when colonialism and imperialism are not going go fall apart. The Levant has been at the cross-roads of great power and religious interests and settlements for centuries. Nothing is changing in that respect.

But it has also been a hub of innovation and trade since antiquity . But I see that some people are posting video of Ghassan Khanafi of the PFLP from 1970 justifying armed resistance. 55 years on. Further, the current situation upturns the idea that only Palestinians alone can determine their future is wrong. It’s a revolutionary fantasy. There are particular circumstances here in this geo-political intersection. Look at the result.

It’s a grim time.